Election 2024: “A lot can change within 11 months” – Dr. Asah-Asante on polls tipping Mahama to emerge victorious

Senior lecturer and political scientist at the University of Ghana, Dr. Kwame Asah-Asante, has admonished political actors to manage their expectations following polls tipping the flagbearer of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Dramani Mahama, to emerge victorious in the general elections.

Global Info Analytics’ latest opinion polls have tipped Mr. Mahama to be in a comfortable lead if elections were held today.

Dr. Asah-Asante was responding to Alfred Ocansey, the host of TV3’s current affairs programme Ghana Tonight, on the timelines of the polls, as they were clearly conducted 11 months before the December elections.

“Eleven months is such a long time that a lot of things can change; there is no doubt about that,” he said, indicating that every credible piece of research should be able to give respondents some pointers as to what their views are on the issues they are being questioned about.

He said, “Scientific research provides the basis for understanding the issues on the ground, and in this case, helping you [the researcher] gauge the views of the people, what they aspire for, and what type of decision they will make when the time comes. Depending on the questions you put across to them, they will be able to respond appropriately.”

Reacting to the concerns that the population size [of 5,881] for the poll does not truly represent the voting population of over 17 million voters, Dr. Asah-Asante cautioned that the views of that size should not be wished away, although limited.

“What we [social scientists] are saying is that the population that you would select, out of which you would select the sample size, the sample size should be representative of the population.” Dr. Asah-Asante told Alfred Ocansey.

The senior lecturer at the University of Ghana, however, noted that if the research is scientific and properly done, “it is the views of the people,” and for that matter, it cannot be wished away; rather, it gives political actors the opportunity to plan well.

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This, he said, will afford the politicians time to identify their strengths and weaknesses and work on them ahead of time.

Breakdown of the Global Info Analytics polls

The polls, which were conducted in October and December 2023, revealed a little increase in the percentage of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, from 28.0 % in October to 29.6 % in December. However, Mr. Mahama appreciated from 48.3 % in October to 53.2 % in December.

The leader of the Movement for Change, Mr. Alan Kyerematen also experienced a decline in percentage points from 11.3 % in October to 7.7 % in December.

As regards whether the NPP can break the “eight,” 27 % said “Yes” in October and dropped to 21 % in December. On that same question, 55 % said “No” in October, which increased to 60 % in December.

Moreover, 51 % of the respondents who are first-time voters said they would vote for John Dramani Mahama, as opposed to 25 % for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

In addition, 57 % of experienced voters (i.e., persons who have voted before) indicated that they would vote for the NDC’s candidate, whereas 27 % of experienced voters said they would vote for Dr. Bawumia.